Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Palm Oil Production in Côte d'Ivoire
Mahyao Germain Adolphe
Programme Systèmes Agraires et Développement Durable, Centre National de Recherche Agronomique (CNRA), BP 602 Gagnoa, Côte d’Ivoire.
Gilles Léonce Niamketchi *
Programme Palmier à Huile, Station de Recherche de La Mé, Centre National de Recherche Agronomique (CNRA), 01 BP 989 Abidjan 01, Côte d'Ivoire.
Hauverset Assiénin N’guessan
Programme Palmier à Huile, Station de Recherche de La Mé, Centre National de Recherche Agronomique (CNRA), 01 BP 989 Abidjan 01, Côte d'Ivoire.
Bel Aurore Martine Kablan
Programme Palmier à Huile, Station de Recherche de La Mé, Centre National de Recherche Agronomique (CNRA), 01 BP 989 Abidjan 01, Côte d'Ivoire.
Obed Dessan Gogoue
Programme Palmier à Huile, Station de Recherche de La Mé, Centre National de Recherche Agronomique (CNRA), 01 BP 989 Abidjan 01, Côte d'Ivoire.
Christophe Bini Adou
Programme Palmier à Huile, Station de Recherche de La Mé, Centre National de Recherche Agronomique (CNRA), 01 BP 989 Abidjan 01, Côte d'Ivoire.
Brou Kouame
Programme Gestion Durable des Sols et Maitrise de l’Eau, Centre National de Recherche Agronomique (CNRA), 01 BP 633 Bouaké, Côte d’Ivoire.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The effects of climate change scenarios were analyzed for the central and southern oil palm production regions of Côte d'Ivoire. Temperature and precipitation variables were forecast for the periods 2021-2050 and 2041-2070, based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, in comparison to the 1980-2010 reference period. The results indicated that, besides a considerable frequency of hot days and water scarcity, potentially threatening oil palm production in marginal sections of the Centre region, the climatic parameters suggest standard production conditions for oil palm in these two regions. The risks linked to diseases and pests could be similar or possibly mitigated. In the southern region, climatic variations seem to have no effect on oil palm production. To enhance their resilience, it is crucial to educate oil palm producers on the significance of utilizing drought-resistant planting material, adhering to good agricultural practices and implementing agroforestry techniques. Enhancing producers' access to meteorological information would also be essential.
Keywords: Climate change scenarios, impact, oil palm, meteorological information