District-level Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Rice Yield in Chhattisgarh using DSSAT Simulation Model
Gowtham S
*
Agriculture-ecosystem Modelling Division, National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC), ISRO Balanagar, Hyderabad, 500032, India.
Dhanapriya M
Birla Institute of Technology (BIT), Mesra, Ranchi, Jharkhand – 835215, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
This study focuses on the calibration and validation of the DSSAT crop simulation model calibrated with local data, the study projects rice yield changes under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070 in the Chhattisgarh Plain Zone and nearby agro-climatic regions of Chhattisgarh, India. The model was tuned to replicate rice development and yield with great accuracy across many locations using past weather and soil data. Variations in temperature, rainfall, and soil conditions affected the notable disparities in yield seen among sites. To maintain output, the research stresses the need of adaptive techniques like site-specific crop planning, effective water management, and heat-tolerant rice cultivars. These results provide insightful analysis for enhancing agricultural resilience and direction of policy choices in the face of fluctuating climate.
Keywords: Rice yield prediction, climate change, Chhattisgarh plain zone, agro-climatic zones, calibration and validation, sustainable agriculture