Forecasting the Future of Food: An Integrated Review of Crop and Climate Simulation Models
Shabir Ahmad Bhat *
Division of Agronomy, SKUAST-K, India.
Aadil Akbar wani
Division of Agronomy, SKUAST-K, India.
Tabasum Bhat
Division of Agronomy, SKUAST-K, India.
Basharat Bashir
Division of Agrometeorology, SKUAST-K, India.
Suhaib Afzal
Division of Agronomy, SKUAST-K, India.
Insha Ali
Division of Agronomy, SKUAST-K, India.
Iqra Javid
Division of Agronomy, SKUAST-K, India.
Aamir Hussain
Institute of Business and Policy Research, SKUAST-K, India.
Marifa Gulzar
Division of Vegetable Science, SKUAST-K, India.
Bisma Nazir
Division of Agronomy, SKUAST-K, India.
Nadeem Nissar
Division of Entomology, SKUAST-K, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Global agriculture is facing a powerful challenge from climate change, with its potential to destabilize food systems through increased temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, extended droughts, and more frequent extreme weather events. These climatic shocks are projected to impact significantly on crop yields, shift planting seasons, and amplify the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, especially in the developing world. Here, crop and climate simulation models have become vital tools for projecting agricultural performance, assessing adaptation options, and guiding policy choices to promote long-term food security. By incorporating biological, environmental, and climatic factors, the models allow researchers and other stakeholders to estimate the projected effects of climate futures on crop productivity. This review integrates the structure, applications, and limitations of prominent crop and climate simulation models i.e., DSSAT, APSIM, Aqua Crop, WOFOST, and InfoCrop and emphasizes their application in informing climate-resilient agricultural planning. It also examines coupling these models with climate projection tools and discusses progress in model integration, handling uncertainty, and regional adaptation.
Keywords: APSIM, climate change, crop growth models, DSSAT, Simulation models