International Journal of Environment and Climate Change

This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in drought severity in Afaj District of Al-Qadysia Governorate, Southern Iraq, using Sentinel 2 satellite data NDVI, NDWI, and NDDI indices for 2019 and 2025. The study area has a desert climate with long, hot summers and a mean annual temperature of 29.85 °C, while winter is short and mild. Rain falls between November and April, and the mean annual rainfall is less than 30 mm. The results revealed a significant correlation between the satellite indices (NDVI, NDWI, and NDDI), and they showed a wide temporal-spatial variation. Five land-use types were identified in the study area: weak vegetation, moderate vegetation, urban land, bare land, and water bodies. The area for all land cover classes decreased between 2019 and 2025, except for bare land, which increased by 28%. The study area was classified into five drought classes using the NDDI index, including: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high drought severity. The high drought severity occurred mainly in the wetlands and the surrounding area, located in the northeast part of the study area. The study area is highly affected by moderate drought severity levels in both years (40% and 60% of the total area in 2019 and 2025, respectively). The results emphasized that there would be a more severe drought in 2025 than in 2019. The expansion of severely affected land has led to a reduction in agricultural and urban land in 2025. The decline in agricultural land is attributed to land degradation and reduced productivity caused by water scarcity and increased salt accumulation in the soil. This has prompted reverse migration from the countryside to the city as farmers seek to secure livelihoods.